Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.     

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.In 2010, global fisheries supplied the world with ∼148 million tons of fish with a total value of 217.5 billion US dollars (1). Fisheries represent a strong anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems and an increasing fraction of commercially exploited fish stocks are on the verge of collapse (1). However, in some oceanic regions like the tropical Pacific, which hosts the largest world fisheries (1), the decline of fish stocks cannot be attributed solely to overfishing. It is suspected to result from the interplay between human foraging and regional natural fluctuations in food abundance at the base of the food web such as variations in net primary productivity (NPP) occurring at interannual-to-decadal timescales. These natural fluctuations impact marine ecosystems across large oceanic regions (2). In the tropical Pacific, these fluctuations are suggested to be driven by large-scale climate variations such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (3), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (4), or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (5). These climate modes are potentially predictable between one and up to several years (6, 7). However, although past studies have investigated the predictive skill of physical variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) (8) or precipitation (9) in the tropical Pacific, none has explored the potential predictability of natural variations of biogeochemical variables like NPP. This is all of the more surprising as the ability to predict natural variations of NPP at interannual-to-decadal timescales may be of key relevance to fisheries management (10–12).     

Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3–0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 × 10⁵ g) CO₂·yr⁻¹ in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion·yr⁻¹ for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5–2.7 Gt CO₂·yr⁻¹ in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion·yr⁻¹. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.     

超声预测单绒毛膜双胎中选择性宫内生长受限儿妊娠结局的护理观察

目的：探讨超声预测单绒毛膜（MC）双胎中选择性宫内生长受限儿（s IUGR）妊娠结局的护理。方法：选取2011年12月-2013年7月在本院接收的60例超声预测单绒毛双胎中选择性宫内生长受限儿,对患者加强整体护理,回顾分析妊娠结局。结果：干预后产妇心理状况评分明显低于干预前,差异有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。新生儿死亡率为3.3%。结论：单绒毛膜双胎当中s IUGR采取超声预测,并加强护理干预,可明显改善妊娠结局。     

Markov Chain Modelling Analysis of HIV/AIDS Progression: A Race-based Forecast in the United States

HIV/AIDS has reached a pandemic level across the world with more than 33 million people who are living with HIV. In the United States, more than half a million people have been victims of AIDS. This study investigates the most vulnerable racial minority population (the African Americans) in the United States and the second least affected (the Caucasians) in order to predict the trends of the epidemic. A Markov chain analysis was used to model the progression of the disease among vulnerable people, infective people and AIDS cases for the two races separately, based on the 2009 Centers of Disease Control and Prevention HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report. Based on the Markov model, our study predicts that the number of African American people living with AIDS diagnosis and HIV infection and dead due to HIV/AIDS will be 662.2, 1225.3 and 62.9 in 2015 and 794.9, 1566.5 and 79.2 in 2030, respectively. The number of Caucasian people living with AIDS diagnosis and HIV infection and dead due to HIV/AIDS will be 96.4, 160 and 6.5 in 2015 and 118.6, 206.9 and 8.3 in 2030, respectively. The numbers of deaths due to HIV/AIDS are quite stable over the years in both the races. There is an increasing trend in the number of people living with HIV infection and AIDS diagnosis in Caucasians compared with African Americans. The absolute number of Caucasians living with AIDS diagnosis and HIV infection is quite smaller compared with African Americans. The results reveal discrepancy in HIV infection, AIDS diagnosis and deaths due to HIV/AIDS among the African Americans and the Caucasians races. There is a need for interventions focusing on HIV/AIDS prevention and management, optimum resource allocation and development of antiAIDS campaigns to reduce the infection rate.     

Can a housing environmental index establish associations between indoor risk indicators and clinical tests in persons with asthma?

The aim was to investigate the associations between indoor risk indicators, identified by a housing environmental index (HE-index), and clinical tests of lung function, allergy and bronchial hyper-responsiveness (BHR). Forty-nine eligible subjects participated in the investigation. The HE-index was based on national and international guidelines and related to measurements of humidity, temperature, carbon dioxide, formaldehyde, nitrogen dioxide, allergens and occurrence of tobacco smoke and pets. Only 18% of the investigated homes did not have any of the risk indicators. Statistically significant associations were found between exposure to mites and lung function, and to a lesser degree in BHR for subjects living in homes with pets. The cut-off levels in the HE-index were not specifically related to health effects and may therefore have been too high for sensitive persons. Further studies are needed to establish relevant guidelines for the identification of risk indicators in the housing environment for persons with asthma.     

Comparing Safety Climate between Two Populations of Hospitals in the United States

Objective. To compare safety climate between diverse U.S. hospitals and Veterans Health Administration (VA) hospitals, and to explore the factors influencing climate in each setting.
Data Sources. Primary data from surveys of hospital personnel; secondary data from the American Hospital Association's 2004 Annual Survey of Hospitals.
Study Design. Cross-sectional study of 69 U.S. and 30 VA hospitals.
Data Collection. For each sample, hierarchical linear models used safety-climate scores as the dependent variable and respondent and facility characteristics as independent variables. Regression-based Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition examined differences in effects of model characteristics on safety climate between the U.S. and VA samples.
Principal Findings. The range in safety climate among U.S. and VA hospitals overlapped substantially. Characteristics of individuals influenced safety climate consistently across settings. Working in southern and urban facilities corresponded with worse safety climate among VA employees and better safety climate in the U.S. sample. Decomposition results predicted 1.4 percentage points better safety climate in U.S. than in VA hospitals: −0.77 attributable to sample-characteristic differences and 2.2 due to differential effects of sample characteristics.
Conclusions. Results suggest that safety climate is linked more to efforts of individual hospitals than to participation in a nationally integrated system or measured characteristics of workers and facilities.     

护士伦理气氛认知对职业价值观的影响

目的：了解护士伦理气氛认知和职业价值观的现状,探讨伦理气氛认知对职业价值观的影响。方法：采用护士伦理气氛认知量表与职业价值观量表对衡阳市2所综合性医院的598名注册护士进行问卷调查。结果：护士伦理气氛认知总均分为（3.34±0.24）分,护士职业价值观总均分为（3.36±0.45）分。护士伦理气氛认知各个维度对其职业价值观各个维度有预测作用,结果具有统计学意义（P〈0.01）。结论：营造良好的医院伦理氛围,有助于提高护士对医院伦理气氛的认知水平,从而促使其树立正确的职业价值观。